Methodology
Operational macro: fiscal flows, Treasury operations, and balance-sheet mechanics, read daily and in that order.
The full methodology — data sources, the identities we work from, and how a flow becomes a position — is being written up. In the meantime, the three tenets above are the whole of it in short form.
The framework in three tenets
“We trade the plumbing, not the politics.”
Flows before surveys
Fiscal flows and Treasury operations print daily and lead the cycle. We read them before the soft data catches up.
Balance-sheet mechanics
Who is issuing, who has to absorb it, and what that does to reserves, rates, and risk appetite. Operations, not opinions.
No politics
Our framework is descriptive, not ideological. We don’t care what the deficit should be — only what it is, and where it lands.
See the framework at work
The free updates apply it to live flows — occasional, sent when the flows warrant it.
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